6. The turn of the millennium (Y2K) computer problem

• that the vulnerability of our various technical systems can in fact be improved,
• if we are willing to spend time, effort, and money on the problem.

6.1 Relevant background

Bo Annegard, of the Industry Association, was a member of the Swedish 2000-delegation. He didn't mince his words when he said in a newspaper interview, "The year 2000 is the greatest economic security risk brought about by a technical problem which civilization has ever faced."

We will here attempt to very briefly explain the reasons for this concern, together with the succesful corrective actions applied.

• hardware components which can be seen and handled, such as computer chips, and
• software controlling programs and instructions for the calculations/operations which one desires to carry out. These are loaded in via keyboard, diskette, or CD. Software can only be seen and edited on the computer screen, or on a printout.
• Furthermore, for routine operations, there are local combinations of hardware and software imbedded in so-called ROM systems. The simplest examples of these are microchips for clocks, which give the date in video players, and door codes in entry way locks. But they can also be found in pipelines on the bottom of the ocean, and in satellites, giving position transmission.

1. Without intending to, the first problem which was created for the future was that January 1, 2000 (which was written 01 01 00) could be interpreted by the computer as the year 1900 (also written 01 01 00), 100 years back in time. New year's day thus became our first "dangerous" date. (This didn't, however, apply in UNIX programs, which will have their first date problem in the year 2038)
2. The next dangerous date which most programmers surely overlooked was February 29, 2000, which is an extra leap-year day occurring only every 400 years.
3. The next complex of problems which past attempts to save memory have created for the future is that a series of 1's is also used as a command to start a computer program.
4. Also, a series of 9's, such as 99 or 999, is often an error code which stops the program. Thus, January 1, 1999 (which is 01 01 99) could be a dangerous date in such applications. For example, Statoil experienced that their gasoline pumps became unusable on that day. In this group of dangerous dates we could also place September 9, 1999 (which is 09 09 99)

6.2 What could have happened without corrective actions?

During a conference in the USA sometime in 1997, US senator Robert Bennet therefore stated the following: "If today was December 31, 1999, and all of our computers were still completely unmodified, then the entire world's economy would come to a stop. Further, neither would your telephone ring, no flights would take off, drinking water would not come out your tap, and no electricity would be available at the wall-socket."

In addition, 90% of the food transported to the great cities of the USA is carried by train, which are completely directed by computers. America's military defense would be forced more than 30 years back intime due to malfunctioning of the radar installations, and because GPS- navigation systems for smart bombs would have shown incorrect positions.

The effect on the world's economy would have been at least as negative as it was during the oil crisis of the 1970's. Additionally, if people had panicked and lost confidence in the global economic market, we could have been thrown into an even greater crisis than in the 1930's, when businesses and banks went bankrupt, and unemployment was rampant.

6.3 Essential counter-measures

1. Identification of the problem areas
2. Corrective steps, in the form of re-programming, exchanging computer chips, etc.
3. Testing, first the individual systems, and then the networks with various computers.

The world's computer network has been successively built up over 40 years by testing and adding on computer after computer, giving an increasingly comprehensive computer network.
A single computer which failed to have its problems corrected in time could have sent out incorrect information to Y2K-compliant computers. And even if every computer had been corrected in time, huge problems could have resulted if they had not also been sufficiently tested in network.

The worst problem was, however, that the whole world had been awakened altogether too late, and that everyone underestimated the volume of the required work.

As a result, neither time nor the available work force was sufficient to carry out all the corrective measures in time.

Even the industrialized countries were forced to prioritize the most important societal functions. Among these were reckoned electrical supply, telephone systems, traffic control systems for roads, trains, and planes, banking institutions, crucial hospital equipment and important military installations.
The technical consulting company, Gartner Group, estimates that the total cost to the world will be as high as 1 trillion dollars.

6.4 In the USA, the following advice for preparedness was given out:

1. Be prepared for a 3-6 month period of community-wide repairs in the beginning of the year 2000.
2. Therefore, obtain extra prescriptions for important medicines.
3. Lay aside sufficient cash "under the mattress."
4. Make copies of the more important documents, such as bank statements, insurance policies, and identification papers.

Without the required counter-measures, the above advice would have been applicable even in Sweden. Those who live in isolated areas could have also:

5. Acquired cooking equipment which uses liquid fuels, and portable kerosene heaters for room heat.
6. Stored up fuel, canned food goods, and drinking water sufficient for several weeks.

6.5 What would God want to teach us?

All the problems which have so far been forced to correct are only a trifle compared to what could happen at the outbreak of the third world war. At that time, even vital community services could be knocked out.

We believe that God has the same higher purpose for us who belong to the church of the end times.